[sandybeach]

Much of fisheries management decisions are based on mathematical models. Modelers study historical numbers that go back in the past to an era that they assume as a base point, from which they project "facts" for the future. Sounds good so far, and figures don't lie.
So what else does mathematical modeling do? For one, it was the cause of the collapse of the sub-prime real estate market. Who is behind this mathematical modeling? A lot of very smart highly paid people. Where are these people now? Out of work. Who are these people? People who ran large banks, brokerage firms, rating agencies and mortgage firms. Where are those people now? Out of work. Who bought these packages of junk bonds? A lot of very smart highly paid people. Where are these people now? Out of work. What's the bottom line? A lot of irreparable economic damage.
Does anyone today place absolute faith in mathematical models? Ho boy, how about bureaucrats in fisheries management, state and federal politicians and (you fill in some blanks). Who is selling this junk science? A lot of very smart highly paid people who run large foundations. Wouldn't that put those people out of work. Nope. Who is buying this junk science? A lot of smart very wealthy people. Will this cause those wealthy people to lose their jobs? No, few ever held a real job thanks to grandpa. Will this cause politicians and bureaucrats to lose their jobs? Hah! What's the bottom line? Irreparable economic damage. Junk science = junk bonds.
Did anyone learn anything from this? Only those who had skin in the game and then the hard way. What about the majority of politicians, bureaucrats and those who run ultra-green foundations? Maybe, but few have skin in the game since most have teflon coated scales.

 

[twofinbluna]

sandybeach wrote:

Does anyone today place absolute faith in mathematical models?

I would certainly hope not.

 

[HungryJack]

sandybeach wrote:
Did anyone learn anything from this?
Nope

 

[Surf Dweller]

IMHO
As long as the faulted science gets funding the flogging will continue.
The Saltonstall-Kennedy Act (SA)established a fund (known as the S-K fund) that the Secretary of Commerce is supposed to use to provide grants or cooperative agreements for fisheries research and development projects addressed to all aspects of U.S. fisheries ( not just the ones that suit them).
This money for the SK funding largely comes from tariffs on imports. The current admin has no desire to close the door on this imported seafood and its cash cow tariffs (it's to lucrative).
At the outset of SK the tariff money was earmarked to be used to better the fisheries by funding loans and improving the fleet, which they did a too good a job at(big mistake IMHO) ,
and grants to better the science to sustain the fisheries
,which it has up until 2005 (which is the year IMHO they went completely berserk) to a limited extent accomplished, but with extremely stringent and unrealistic guidelines , which also has caused the demise of many small fishers).

For the most part a good chunk of this money nowadays is now diverted to homeland security related issues, war effort etc, and the paltry remainder keeps only second rate (cheap hires) researchers in a job.

OK So what is it I am suggesting?

Give the funding to the boats that fish every day and stick a full time observer onboard or better yet a video camera and you will finally see the real and clear picture of what is going on.

No math, no models, no guessing, just the cold hard facts.

 

[MakoMike]

Sticking an observer on board every fishing vessel for every trip is certainly not cost effective or practical.

 

[NilsS]

Surf Dweller -

You're right on target on the S-K program, but you missed out on one really important fact: THE S-K program funding was "raided" years ago and diverted to NMFS/NOAA administration. I don't how much of that has been rediverted (?) to National Security.

S-K grants program funded some useful research as well as fluff back in the old days - a lot of valuable gear research, a lot of "underutilized species" work, some energy conservation work during the 1st "energy crisis," etc.