Do you think there will be a summer flounder season in 2009? What are the odds? Will NMFS swoop in and save the day? Will fluke be the straw which breaks the camel's back and force MSA changes?
I think there is at least an 85% chance there will be no fluke fishing in 2009, But hey I'm an optimist
Personally I think there's as much of a chance for the quota we thought we'd get this year (11 million or so) as being cut WAAAYYY down.
The last few years we have received the quota the following year (thought we'd get 17, got 21 - next year though we'd get 15, got 17 - thought we'd get 11, got 15) Then by 2010 or so it'll probably be closed.
I don't know that they'll ever even close it officially, I think it more likely they'll just chop the quota down so much it will be effectively closed, even though "technically" there will still be some quota. Still a closure, just not officially called one. A blip in the survey data could hold the quota or lower it less in a given year, you never know of course.
That's not counting when they get the prelim MRFSS stuff and shut the fishery down for recs during the season, that is very likely in IMHO. I'm talking the overall quota.
This post edited by CaptTB 11:46 AM 03/17/2008