[DaveB]

This is NOT good

... from the BBC

The price of crude oil could soar to $200 a barrel in as little as six months, as supply continues to struggle to meet demand, a report has warned.

With benchmark US light crude passing the $122 mark for the first time on Tuesday, the warning comes from Goldman Sachs energy strategist Argun Murti.

Surging demand was increasingly likely to create a "super-spike" past $200 in six months to two years' time, he said.

Oil prices have now risen 25% in the last four months and by 400% from 2001.

Mr Murti correctly predicted three years ago - when oil was about $55 a barrel - that it would pass $100, which it reached for the first time in January of this year.

Chinese demand

Soaring global demand for oil is being led by China's continuing economic boom and, to a lesser extent, by India's rapid economic expansion.

Both are now increasingly competing with the US, the European Union and Japan for the lion's share of global oil production.

This additional demand comes at a time of continuing production problems in a number of oil-producing nations.

Production is down in Nigeria after the latest attacks on pipelines this week by anti-government militants, while Iraqi exports through the north of the country have been hit by renewed cross-border raids by Turkish forces against Kurdish insurgents.

Oil prices are also rising as the key US summer driving season approaches.

Economists warn that continuing high oil prices will impact on the global economy, hitting growth and fuelling inflation.

Oil prices were slightly down in early Wednesday trading, with US light crude falling back 21 cents to $121.60 a barrel.

London's Brent dipped 17 cents to $120.14, back from the record $120.99 it hit on Tuesday.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/business/7387203.stm

Published: 2008/05/07 08:28:34 GMT

© BBC MMVIII

 

[MakoMike]

Or, the other school of thought is that this caould all be a bubble and oil will be bcak to $70 a barrel next year. who knows who is right?

 

[AZFISHKILLER]

I'm converting the Camino to solar!!!!!!

 

[SinkerBouncer]

MakoMike wrote:
Or, the other school of thought is that this caould all be a bubble and oil will be bcak to $70 a barrel next year. who knows who is right?
In your dreams.

Guaranteed we will see $200/bar oil.
The only question is when.

 

[Slacker]

DaveB wrote:

Economists warn that continuing high oil prices will impact on the global economy, hitting growth and fuelling inflation.

Its scarey to think what this might do to worldwide food prices which are already reported to be up 45% this year. Some predict widespread social unrest will result as people fight for food. Isolated cases of food rioting have already been reported. In places like Egypt, where the govt subsidizes the production of bread, a staple in that country, shortages and higher cost are reported. It's not hard to immagine an uptick in terrorism from desperate people who very well may blame the west.

 

[fish4me]

MakoMike wrote:
Or, the other school of thought is that this caould all be a bubble and oil will be bcak to $70 a barrel next year. who knows who is right?

Wishfull thinking.

 

[MakoMike]

SinkerBouncer wrote:
MakoMike wrote:
Or, the other school of thought is that this caould all be a bubble and oil will be bcak to $70 a barrel next year. who knows who is right?
In your dreams.

Guaranteed we will see $200/bar oil.
The only question is when.

Np question, I was talking about the short term, say the next 18 months.

 

[fishon2407]

The head honchos at opec are seeing $$$$$ signs and planning for additions to their castles.We need to open our reserves and increase our own production.This is just insane.Why do we really need to rely on oil from other countries when we have enough here.Start drilling in Alaska and to **** with the tree huggin hippies

.

 

[Deepline]

SinkerBouncer wrote:
MakoMike wrote:
Or, the other school of thought is that this caould all be a bubble and oil will be bcak to $70 a barrel next year. who knows who is right?
In your dreams.

Guaranteed we will see $200/bar oil.
The only question is when.

WOW , you guarantee it ?? That is a VERY STRONG prediction.

"Not everyone shares Goldman's view. Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., countered Goldman's analysis with a note predicting that crude prices could as easily fall to $40 a barrel as rise to $200 over the next two years because supplies are, as Evans put it, comfortable."

There is no doubt the speculators are adding "Fluff" . I had a retired cop tell me he is trading oil futures online, isn't that how the internet bubble ended up bursting ? All the landscapers who became "TRADERS" had to get back to what they really knew.

There is no doubt that demand is up, but a lot of the price is speculation , and money that moved from the dollar to oil. Last week when we saw some strength trying to move back into dollar, oil came in, which is evidence of the correlation of the OIL/DOLLAR trade.

They should make the "investors" take physical delivery of at least a part of the oil they are buying, then you'll really see how much fluff is in the number, it will also shake out manipulation.

This post edited by Deepline 10:58 AM 05/07/2008

 

[AZFISHKILLER]

fishon2407 wrote:
The head honchos at opec are seeing $$$$$ signs and planning for additions to their castles.We need to open our reserves and increase our own production.This is just insane.Why do we really need to rely on oil from other countries when we have enough here.Start drilling in Alaska and to **** with the tree huggin hippies

.
Yep!!!!

 

[canyonfvr]

If it ever did hit 200 what do you think the price of a gallon os gas would be ??

 

[AZFISHKILLER]

canyonfvr wrote:
If it ever did hit 200 what do you think the price of a gallon os gas would be ??
850

 

[canyonfvr]

AZFISHKILLER wrote:
canyonfvr wrote:
If it ever did hit 200 what do you think the price of a gallon os gas would be ??
850

Damm

that would suck

 

[GradySailfish]

I can definitely see it happening in the next few years. Many are predicting we are going to hit "Peak Oil" in 2012, and thats when the real bidding wars will begin.

As much as I hate to say it, and despite the fact I recently moved into a fuel efficient boat I think I might just pack it in. I'll surf fish and kayak.

This is what corporate greed brought us. Don't blame the oil companies, blame the Walmarts, Nikes, etc, etc who outsourced all manufacturing jobs to China, and thereby built them a robust economy, which shattering our economy.

 

[BennyV]

I believe oil will go up up and away for a long time to come. It will only eventually get cheaper when technology becomes advanced enough to create vehicles that are cheap, dependable, and readily available to the general public. It is at this time that the entire oil market will flop in the US and other countries that have made use of this technology. When this happens I predict that terrorism will slow down in middle eastern areas, mainly because of the large decrease in oil money influxing into the middle east.

 

[ag3]

I believe oil will stabalize by the end of the year.

 

[Deepline]

Everyone wants to pay the blame game, we use more oil than China and India combined ! Look right here, on the LIE , single passenger commuters driving Suburbans and SRT hot rods that get 8 mpg , Do you think that is any gov't fault. No one want to look at themselves, everyone points fingers. Seriously, if everyone slowed down 5mph , it would make a HUGE difference in gasoline consumption, switch out every other lightbulb in your house to a flourescent one, recycle plastics, etc. It will all help to make a difference. I am no tree hugger by any stretch, but I have made small cuts here and there, and I see a noticeable difference.

 

[SinkerBouncer]

Deepline wrote:
SinkerBouncer wrote:
MakoMike wrote:
Or, the other school of thought is that this caould all be a bubble and oil will be bcak to $70 a barrel next year. who knows who is right?
In your dreams.

Guaranteed we will see $200/bar oil.
The only question is when.

WOW , you guarantee it ?? That is a VERY STRONG prediction.

"Not everyone shares Goldman's view. Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., countered Goldman's analysis with a note predicting that crude prices could as easily fall to $40 a barrel as rise to $200 over the next two years because supplies are, as Evans put it, comfortable."

There is no doubt the speculators are adding "Fluff" . I had a retired cop tell me he is trading oil futures online, isn't that how the internet bubble ended up bursting ? All the landscapers who became "TRADERS" had to get back to what they really knew.

There is no doubt that demand is up, but a lot of the price is speculation , and money that moved from the dollar to oil. Last week when we saw some strength trying to move back into dollar, oil came in, which is evidence of the correlation of the OIL/DOLLAR trade.

They should make the "investors" take physical delivery of at least a part of the oil they are buying, then you'll really see how much fluff is in the number, it will also shake out manipulation.

Long term (five years) I don?t think anything will prevent $200 oil.

Political leadership in this country has completely put its head in the sand when it comes to oil policy ? or the lack of it.
Our government has no policy to encourage automakers to build efficient cars or consumers to buy them, no policy to expand nuclear energy, no meaningful policies to encourage consumers to use less fossil fuel.

The US will continue to consume 25% of the world?s oil output while China, Brazil and India?s rapidly expanding economies are spawning a vast emerging middle class that will need oil and gas to fuel their cars and homes.

Supply will remain unpredictable at best as much of the world?s oil is in the hands of hostile or unstable regimes such as Venezuela, Iran, and Nigeria.
Can you imagine if the House of Saud were to fall into the hands of the extremists who want to bring them down?
It happened in Iran.

They only thing that I see that could bring prices down would be a recession and of course that would be short term - or so we would hope.

 

[Blazetoy]

I drive very conservatively, stopped buying lunch - play paddleball during lunch with some of my co-workers, we rarely eat out or order in anymore.

Still have Belt parkway maniacs today, blowing there horns behind me...screw 'em, I could use the money.

 

[ag3]

SinkerBouncer wrote:
Deepline wrote:
SinkerBouncer wrote:
MakoMike wrote:
Or, the other school of thought is that this caould all be a bubble and oil will be bcak to $70 a barrel next year. who knows who is right?
In your dreams.

Guaranteed we will see $200/bar oil.
The only question is when.

WOW , you guarantee it ?? That is a VERY STRONG prediction.

"Not everyone shares Goldman's view. Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., countered Goldman's analysis with a note predicting that crude prices could as easily fall to $40 a barrel as rise to $200 over the next two years because supplies are, as Evans put it, comfortable."

There is no doubt the speculators are adding "Fluff" . I had a retired cop tell me he is trading oil futures online, isn't that how the internet bubble ended up bursting ? All the landscapers who became "TRADERS" had to get back to what they really knew.

There is no doubt that demand is up, but a lot of the price is speculation , and money that moved from the dollar to oil. Last week when we saw some strength trying to move back into dollar, oil came in, which is evidence of the correlation of the OIL/DOLLAR trade.

They should make the "investors" take physical delivery of at least a part of the oil they are buying, then you'll really see how much fluff is in the number, it will also shake out manipulation.

Long term (five years) I don?t think anything will prevent $200 oil.

Political leadership in this country has completely put its head in the sand when it comes to oil policy ? or the lack of it.
Our government has no policy to encourage automakers to build efficient cars or consumers to buy them, no policy to expand nuclear energy, no meaningful policies to encourage consumers to use less fossil fuel.

The US will continue to consume 25% of the world?s oil output while China, Brazil and India?s rapidly expanding economies are spawning a vast emerging middle class that will need oil and gas to fuel their cars and homes.

Supply will remain unpredictable at best as much of the world?s oil is in the hands of hostile or unstable regimes such as Venezuela, Iran, and Nigeria.
Can you imagine if the House of Saud were to fall into the hands of the extremists who want to bring them down?
It happened in Iran.

They only thing that I see that could bring prices down would be a recession and of course that would be short term - or so we would hope.

President Bush has passed a Fuel bill for cars...By 2012 ALL cars (SUV's and Pickups included) must have a 30mpg rating.

President Bush has urged to drill our own oil in Alaska, North Dakota, Off the coast of Florida for as long as he has been president.

The democrats and the environmental groups have denied it every time, because they are worried about environment.

SO dont come and post that the government has not tried.