[ctwhitechin]

Hello everyone:

I normally don't like to ask for investment advice from my fellow Noreasters, but thought I would throw this one by you guys, many of which I'm sure are more knowledgeable than myself. Back in April, I bought 2,000 shares of Jetblue (JBLU) stock, at 5.15 a share...now it's at 4.20, with an after hours low of 4.11. and it closed at 4.41 today but dropped after hours, due to two announcements.

1)delay of purchase of about 20 aircraft for a few years
2) announcement of offering of $160 million of convertable debentures, which basically means possibly dilution by adding more shares to the market in the future.

I thought I did my homework before I bought, JBLU to me anyway has a decent business plan, they beat earnings, building a new terminal at JFK which impressed me when I flew them in March, they have about 1Billion cash on hand, etc etc. Yes I understand fuel is killing all the airlines, does anyone agree with my stance on holding until I at least get back to break even? Think that's possible, or is JBLU doomed to keep sliding to the 3's than 2's than lights out?

Thanks for any opinions, I do appreciate them. Right now I'm down about $2200 if I sell tomorrow.

 

[Roccus7]

Remember, you don't lose any money until you sell...

Why sell now? It's not even a capital loss since you haven't held the stock for one year, unless you made the purchase in '07.

 

[jpd]

I just pulled up that ticker on Google Finance, why is there no annual dividend or percentage yield listed?

 

[ctwhitechin]

correct, I've only had the stock for a little over 2 months, my gut tells me they're not filing bankruptcy as the short hack posters on some finance boards want people to believe, but today's announcements didn't sit well w/me, I understand delaying the planes in today's current economy w/the price of fuel, but why would you want to raise 160mm in cash if you have 1Billion on hand? That worries me.

 

[ctwhitechin]

I don't think JBLU pays an annual dividend, to me I thought it was a good buy, non-union airline, would probably win in a price war...I am pro-union but thought that this was a good investment both short and long term. Now I'm going to see what happens tomorrow and make a decision I think.

 

[edvac]

you arent getting your money back

hows the Hilton or Marriott stocks

 

[claw1]

Sell

Sell that stock and buy some shares in the best Bluefish boat in the country , The Klondike . No whitechin , I am not in PP's sack ! The Claw !

 

[ctwhitechin]

ha, I'm not the one that said you were hanging from his sack..lol

And I didn't think Klondike IX was a public company.

Thank you for the advice, now go back to New Rochelle please

 

[MakoMike]

The best advice I cn give you is to not be influenced by whether you are ahead or behind on the stock. You should evealuate you investments objectively and, except possibly for the commissions, you should ignore any profit or loss that you have already suffered. The key question is whether or not you would buy the stock today at today's price. If the answer is no then sell it, if the answer is yes then keep it.

And for the genius who wants to wait a year before selling, you want you gains to be long term capital gains and your losses to be oredinary income or at least short term capital losses. Long term capital losses are very difficult to use to lower your tax bill, unless you have long term capital gains.

 

[Scott1280]

A couple of things to keep in mind about Jet Blue (pointed out to me by my Cousin who was a pilot with American for years). Their business model looked VERY strong when they first started because they put together some sweet deals when they got started: Brand new planes which were leased with low/no payments in the beginning. New planes meant much lower maintenance costs due to the maintenance requirements as planes age. No retiree costs for retired employees since they were just getting started.

As time has gone on, all of those expenses have started to kick in and they have lost many of the advantages they had over the older airlines.

Anyway, that was just his insight several years ago. FWIW.

 

[PURSUITWA]

I'm definately no guru, but I would have a hard time with the whole airline industry in general with fuel prices, weak dollar, consumer confidence at 22 yr low, airlines resorting to charging $15 to check a bag to help reduce losses, crappy service in general, and god forbid they ever allow cell phones on planes. Just my opinion.


Beer, Pop tarts, and price clubs.

 

[claw1]

I'm not from New Rochelle !

Whitechin ,you are mistaken once again , I am not , never have been, a resident or employed by anyone from New Rochelle , for that matter I hardly cross the Throggs Neck bridge !
Just think about your investment for a moment . If you had invested in Al Coley's Bluefish operation you would be bankrupt as of today , as there is no longer any operation .
Now , if you had invested in the Best Bluefish operation on the coast , The Klondike , your investment would be secure and thriving . Tell me , who is the best Bluefisherman ? One who is no longer in business , or one who's business has thrived Bluefishing for THREE generations? Unless all your investments turn out like Jet Blue , the prudent investor would have been rewarded by investing in the KLONDIKE !!!!

 

[MakoMike]

Investing in a party boat today would be like investing in the titanic, right after it hit the iceberg!

 

[movetheboat]

The key to survival in that business will be consolidation. They must merge with another airline or probably wither and die. The merger if it happens will probably not be at a premium to what it trades at. "SELL"

 

[fish4me]

I wouldn't sell any of the discount airlines just yet. Jet Blue or Southwest.

The giant German Air Carrier Duetsche Lufthasnsa apparently smells value as they took a 19% stake in the company last January by purchasing $300 million worth of shares at $7.27 each. They are now JBLU?s single largest shareholder, with Fidelity Magellan holding the second spot with a 15% position. The analysts are also jumping on the bandwagon, as JP Morgan has issued recent broker upgrades.

Southwest benefited from fuel hedging, where it paid upfront for the right to buy fuel at certain prices. Southwest owns long-term contracts to buy most of its fuel through 2009 for what it would cost if oil were $51 a barrel.

 

[MakoMike]

fish4me wrote:
I wouldn't sell any of the discount airlines just yet. Jet Blue or Southwest.

The giant German Air Carrier Duetsche Lufthasnsa apparently smells value as they took a 19% stake in the company last January by purchasing $300 million worth of shares at $7.27 each. They are now JBLU?s single largest shareholder, with Fidelity Magellan holding the second spot with a 15% position. The analysts are also jumping on the bandwagon, as JP Morgan has issued recent broker upgrades.

Southwest benefited from fuel hedging, where it paid upfront for the right to buy fuel at certain prices. Southwest owns long-term contracts to buy most of its fuel through 2009 for what it would cost if oil were $51 a barrel.



Any airline that doesn't hedge its fuel costs has a dope for a COO.

 

[ctwhitechin]

JBLU is hedged I believe as well, and that was another reason I bought in April was that Lufthansa took a 20% stake in the company, and they bought in at 7.27, which was $2 higher than I got in at, and over $3 higher than the stock is now.

Unfortunately now it is THE LOWEST IT"S EVER BEEN, which is scary, but I don't think they're filing CH.11. Guess I'm in wait mode...

And CLAW, I never said you live in New Rochelle, but since you worship PP and the Klondike, I figured you spent a fair amount of time there. How's $5 a gallon for diesel treating that big Lydia?

 

[tomjg]

I spent 13 years as a stock broker on Wall St. Not knowing the situation with Jet Blue ,I will say that the large majority of stocks that fall below $5 per share continue well south of that number. A stock needs to be above $5 to be eligible for marin being one of the reasons. Just some food for thought.

 

[MakoMike]

tomjg wrote:
I spent 13 years as a stock broker on Wall St. Not knowing the situation with Jet Blue ,I will say that the large majority of stocks that fall below $5 per share continue well south of that number. A stock needs to be above $5 to be eligible for marin being one of the reasons. Just some food for thought.

Not trying to bust them just want to make aure I understand, you mean it has to be over $5 a share to be eligible to be purchased on MARGIN?

 

[claw1]

****** Chin !

Sorry "Chin" , you are wrong again ! I do not "worship" PP !!!!!!! I do worship on most Sunday's at my local church !!!!
I absolutely respect and admire the Klondike name and operation , PP has been a class act for many years.
I have been ,and still am a proffessional waterman for over thirty years , I've seen all types out there ,good and bad , smart and not so smart , guy's who coould succeed and ones who could not , PP the man is smart and has done very well for himself and his operation and his family name . Very few others out there could claim the legacy that this man has . I have not spoken to PP in over ten years , but I see that boat on occasion and see what he still carries!
Guy's like you , armchair know-it-alls are a dime a dozen , I see your kind out in the water everyday .I am on issue # 6 on my 100 ton ticket, do the math ! Anytime you want to compare 1040's from fishing let me know .
You still have not answered the question ? Who was a better investment , Betty W or the KLONDIKE ?