There have been a bunch of inlets between Moriches and Fire Island over the centuries. One way of telling is to look for marsh islands in the bay. They are remnants of islands formed when inlets existed. There was an inlet at Old Inlet. I believe it filled in in the 1800's when a ship sank in it. A good hurricane will open another inlet in that area. There have been overwashes there almost every winter for the past 3 or 4 years. Any inlet that does form will be unlikely to last as the bay is very shallow. One of the factors you need for an inlet to remain is a deepish water on the bay side. Old Inlet is in the Wilderness Area of Fire Island National Seashore. This will likely preclude any filling of the inlet by the Army Corps. It is a topic of discussion betweent the Corps and the Park Service. Despite all the dire predictions of beach homeowners about mainland flooding if new inlets open up very little flooding resulted from Little Pikes Inlet when it formed east of Moriches Inlet. There was a small increase in the tidal range in Moriches Bay. The effect stopped east of Smith's Point, not even making it to Bellport Bay. If you think about it, ever time they dregde an inlet they increase tidal flow and in theory increase potential for flooding because of the increase in the cross-sectional area of the inlet. No one ever says that its going to adversely impact the mainland though.